Evaluation of Danish Support for Climate Change Adaptation

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark seeks a comprehensive evaluation of its climate change adaptation support delivered between 2019 and 2025. The assessment will be formative, aiming to review the relevance, coherence and impact of Danish efforts in the period of markedly increased climate financing, with a special emphasis on locally led adaptation, equitable partnerships and the strengthening of country‑level systems for climate finance and governance. The evaluation will build on the findings of the previous 2020 review and the actions outlined in Danida’s management response, seeking to determine whether the intended improvements have materialised and to identify lessons for future policy and programme design.

The consultancy will conduct a broad literature and document review, interview key stakeholders across Denmark and the participating developing countries, and undertake an in‑depth field assessment focused on Danish bilateral support to Kenya. Activities will involve a pilot visit during the inception phase, followed by a minimum 12‑day fieldwork period in Kenya, with the selection of specific interventions for deeper analysis guided by the evaluation team. The appraisal will include an assessment of resilience outcomes and transformative change achieved by a sample of earlier interventions, alongside an evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of recent projects, with an eye toward identifying operational frameworks that facilitate successful multi‑modal partnerships and sustainable climate adaptation outcomes.

The consultant must comply with Article 5k(1) of Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 and its amendment (EU) No 2023/1214.

In 2026, the Department for Evaluation, Learning and Quality (LEARNING), Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will commission an evaluation of the Danish support to climate change adaptation 2019-2025, with special attention to Locally Led Adaptation (LLA) and equitable partnerships. The evaluation will mainly be formative and have a focus on interventions initiated under a sharply increased allocation for climate change adaptation within the Danish development assistance budget. The last evaluation of Danish Support for climate change adaptation was concluded in 2020, covering the period 2008-2018. Overall, it found that there was not sufficient focus on policy contexts and mainstreaming in the Danish support for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA), with CCA opportunities and challenges insufficiently understood and underestimated, in part due to low levels of capacity among partners and wavering levels of political support at country level. This weakened and complicated efforts to both mainstream climate change adaptation through ongoing development cooperation programmes and/or engage directly with climate adaptation specific projects. The recommendations of the 2020 evaluation holds a number of proposed measures, which together with the Danida management response provided a road map of intended actions to be initiated as follow-up to the evaluation. The realisation of these intensions will be assessed in the upcoming evaluation. Since 2018, Danish support to combat effects of climate change in developing countries has advanced. It has included the appointment in 2019 of a dedicated Danish Climate Ambassador, the long-term strategy for global climate efforts “A Green and Sustainable World”, launched by the Danish Government in October 2020, the establishment of Green Front-Line missions at selected Danish Embassies as well as the Department for Green Diplomacy and Climate (GDK, later KLIMA). In addition, the strategy for Danish Development assistance 2021-25, “The World We Share” (published in June 2021), had a strong focus on the fight for climate, nature and environment. The appointment of a Minister for Development Cooperation and Global Climate Policy in 2022 and the establishment of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities with an international department in the same year, also expressed political commitment to promote action against climate change. During 2019-2025, there has been significant increase in Danish climate financing for developing countries. Commitments for support for climate change adaptation alone increased to estimated more than DKK 3 billion in 2025 and were more than DKK 9 billion in the period 2019-2024. A major shift happened with the new Danish Government in 2022 and the decision to earmark 25% of the development assistance budget for climate, and of this 60% for climate change adaptation. It even increased further in the following years to 30% for climate, still with 60% allocated for adaptation. Given the relevance of the CCA agenda, and the significant developments in Danish support since 2018, it is found timely to revisit the CCA theme with an evaluation lens looking at Danish climate change adaptation portfolio in the period 2019-2025. The choices of modalities (e.g. multi or bilateral engagements, global funds mechanisms) and partners (intermediates, national governments, local communities) will be evaluated to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of the interventions supported. To capture support with transformative impacts, it will look into the design and success of mainstreaming climate adaption into societal processes, justified by the strong synergies between climate change adaptation investments and the development assistance agenda. The evaluation will have a special focus on LLA, equitable partnerships and building effective country systems for CCA financing and governance. Emphasis is expected to be on strategic decisions on national level (e.g. derived from the UNFCCC processes, national development plans and strategies, NDCs and NAPs) and will include the role of various implementing actors (on national, international and local levels) and modalities within financing climate adaption in LDCs. To this, the purpose is to identify and describe operational frameworks for implementing partnerships among key actors and stakeholders on CCA, not at least in Africa. The evaluation will also touch upon aspects of CCA implementation which challenge effectiveness and outcomes, not at least the risk for maladaptation and low efficiency and effectiveness of delivery mechanisms at local and end-user levels. The evaluation has the overall dual purpose of accountability and learning, but will be mainly formative and provide recommendations for future Danish support for climate change adaptation. The objectives of the evaluation are: (1) To provide an overview of the main trends, and an assessment of relevance and coherence in Danish support for climate change adaptation 2019-2025, taken departure in the available data in the Background Study made by INKA Consult; (2) To assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the Danish climate change adaptation support to a selected number of interventions 2019-2025, with special focus on partnerships, LLA and building effective country systems for CCA financing and governance; (3) To assess the contribution to resilience and transformative change of a small sample of previous interventions (before 2019); (4) On the basis of the lessons learned to prepare recommendations for future Danish support for climate change adaptation.
Additional information: In the tender, economic operators must submit a completed and signed statement regarding Article 5k(1) of Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 of 31 July 2014 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia’s actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended by Council Regulation (EU) No 2023/1214 of 23 June 2023. The contract cannot be awarded to a tenderer subject to Article 5k(1) of Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 of 31 July 2014, as amended by Council Regulation (EU) No 2023/1214 of 23 June 2023. Before the time limit for receipt of tenders, the candidates, which the contracting authority has invited to tender, must present documentation of the information provided in the ESPD. The contracting authority can accept the following documentation in relation to the exclusion grounds in sections 135(1), 135(3) and 137(1)(2) of the Danish Public Procurement Act (in order of priority): (1) Extracts from the relevant register or similar documents issued by a competent judicial or administrative authority or certificates issued by the competent authority in the country referred to as documentation that the tenderer is not subject to the grounds for exclusion stipulated in sections 135(1), 135(3) and 137(1)(2); (2) A declaration on oath (only if such extracts, certificates or similar documents are not issued in the country where the economic operator is established, or where the documentation does not cover all the grounds for exclusion stipulated in sections 135(1), 135(3) and 137(1)(2) entirely); (3) A solemn declaration made by the person concerned before a competent judicial or administrative authority, a notary or a competent professional or trade body, in the country of origin or in the country where the economic operator is established (only if there is no provision for declarations on oath in the country where the economic operator is established). Thus, the contracting authority cannot accept e.g. a solemn declaration made before a notary if there can be issued a certificate by the competent authority in the country where the economic operator is established. Moreover, the contracting authority cannot accept self-declarations or similar declarations issued by the economic operator or the person concerned as documentation in relation to the exclusion grounds. Economic operators can identify the relevant documentation using the online platform e-Certis: https://ec.europa.eu/tools/ecertis. If an economic operator is entered on an official list of approved economic operators or has an equivalent certificate (e.g. under a national (pre)qualification system), the economic operator may refer to the list in question or present a certificate issued by the competent authority instead of documentation of the information provided in the ESPD. When an economic operator is participating in the procurement procedure together with others, the economic operator must present a joint statement from all the participating economic operators which identifies the member of the group who can act as an agent on behalf of the group with mandate to establish a legal obligation on behalf of the group in relation to the contracting authority. Economic operators are encouraged to submit all necessary documentation as early as possible. Prior to the signing of the contract, the tenderer, which the contracting authority has awarded the contract to, must present statements of availability from all non-permanent staff (e.g. project specific consultants or freelance consultants). This contract has not been divided into lots, cf. section II.1.6), due to market and economic considerations.
Place of performance: The evaluation will include an in-depth assessment of the Danish bilateral support 2019-2025 to Kenya. The assessment will require a detailed review of the Danish support to Kenya, including assessments of country contexts, needs and capacity, and of the role of other donors and stakeholders. In addition to document reviews, interviews with a broad range of partners and stakeholders both in Kenya and in Denmark will be carried out. All commitments should be covered by a document review, but as the number of supported activities in Kenya is significant, it will be decided in the inception phase, which activities will be addressed with a more in-depth assessment. The analysis of Kenya will also include assessments of the contribution to transformative change and resilience of a limited number of interventions to be finally identified during the inception phase. It is expected that the field trip will require at least 12 working days in Kenya in addition to a pilot visit of one week to Kenya during the inception phase.

Lot: LOT-0000
Title: Evaluation of Danish Support for Climate Change Adaptation

Procurement documents
Address of the procurement documents: https://www.ethics.dk/ethics/eo#/dc4d335f-5c18-45d3-8f03-41d469a255be/publicMaterial