Evaluation of the African Guarantee Fund and Denmark’s contribution

The Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs is commissioning a comprehensive evaluation of the African Guarantee Fund (AGF), a non‑bank financial institution that provides guarantees and capacity‑development support to increase access to finance for small and medium‑sized enterprises across Africa. This assessment will focus on AGF’s contribution to SME financing and development outcomes, alongside the specific added value of Danish capital, grant financing and governance participation. By analysing the fund’s institutional model, blended‑finance architecture, portfolio evolution, and its positioning within the broader SME finance ecosystem, the evaluation will generate evidence on financial and development additionality, the effectiveness of AGF‑supported guarantees and capacity‑development interventions, and the broader market impact of the fund’s activities.

The evaluation will deliver a structured, analytically grounded mapping of AGF’s operations, compare its relevance across time and geography, and quantify outcomes in terms of SME performance, lending behaviour of partner banks, and broader market effects. It will include country‑level case studies, with Kenya as a primary focus, and assess how AGF’s blended‑finance model influences results, drawing lessons to inform future AGF strategy and Danish engagement in blended‑finance instruments for African SME development. The final report will present evidence‑based recommendations for strengthening AGF’s sustainability and for guiding Denmark’s future support of guarantee‑based blended finance initiatives. The evaluation must be completed in accordance with EU public procurement regulations, including compliance with Article 5k(1) of Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 and the use of the ESPD and e‑Certis documentation.

The African Guarantee Fund - for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Ltd (AGF) is a non-bank financial institution established to enhance access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Africa. Its activities include the provision of guarantees to financial institutions and capacity development support to both lenders and SMEs. AGF was one of five concrete initiatives recommended by the Commission on Effective Development Cooperation with Africa in 2010, and has now been in operation for almost 15 years. Denmark was a founding shareholder and has supported the AGF through a combination of shareholder capital, grant financing, and representation on the board. A 2016 evaluation of the results of the Africa Commission included an early assessment of AGF, which found the AGF to be relevant, innovative, and on a promising path, with rapid portfolio growth, strong interest from partner banks, and early indications that participating banks had increased the SME lending portfolio. At the same time, the evaluation noted that AGF was still at an early stage of implementation, and that systematic data on SME-level outcomes, employment effects, financial additionality, and long-term sustainability were not yet available, limiting the scope for assessing broader impacts. It also highlighted a key strategic challenge going forward: balancing the goal of becoming a self-sustaining, market-oriented guarantee fund with the need to expand into higher-risk markets and partner with lower-tier banks in order to maximise development impact. Since then, the AGF has expanded significantly in scale and geographical reach, and has progressively developed its monitoring and evaluation systems, while a longer operational time horizon now provides a much stronger basis for assessing outcomes, additionality, sustainability and longer-term impacts. To document results and draw lessons from AGF’s experience and the Danish support hereto, the Department for Evaluation, Learning and Quality (LEARNING) of the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has therefore decided to commission an evaluation. The overall purposes of the evaluation are to document and assess: (1) The contribution of the AGF to improving access to finance for SMEs in Africa and to generating associated development outcomes; and (2) The contribution and added value of Danish support to the AGF. And, based on this, draw lessons for AGF’s future strategy and operations, for future Danish support to the AGF specifically, and for future Danish support to SME development in Africa through blended finance instruments. The objectives of the evaluation are to: (1) Establish a structured and analytically grounded mapping and characterisation of AGF’s institutional model, blended finance architecture, portfolio evolution and positioning within the broader SME finance ecosystem as well as of Danish support to the AGF; (2) Assess, across time and geographical contexts, AGF’s relevance in addressing SME financing constraints; coherence with other initiatives in the SME finance space; success in mobilising private capital to support SME finance; and financial sustainability; (3) Assess the contribution and added value of Danish support, including capital, concessional grant funding, and governance engagement; (4) Generate credible quantitative evidence on the results of AGF-supported guarantees and capacity development in two country contexts, considering both financial and development additionality, and outcomes at both SME, PFI and broader SME finance market level; (5) Identify contextual, institutional, and design factors that explain observed results and variation across countries, instruments, and institutional settings; (6) Formulate lessons learned and forward-looking, evidence-based recommendations to inform AGF’s future strategy and Denmark’s future engagement with the AGF and guarantee-based blended finance instruments more broadly.
Additional information: In the tender, economic operators must submit a completed and signed statement regarding Article 5k(1) of Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 of 31 July 2014 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia’s actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended by Council Regulation (EU) No 2023/1214 of 23 June 2023. The contract cannot be awarded to a tenderer subject to Article 5k(1) of Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 of 31 July 2014, as amended by Council Regulation (EU) No 2023/1214 of 23 June 2023. Before the time limit for receipt of tenders, the candidates, which the contracting authority has invited to tender, must present documentation of the information provided in the ESPD. The contracting authority can accept the following documentation in relation to the exclusion grounds in sections 135(1), 135(3) and 137(1)(2) of the Danish Public Procurement Act (in order of priority): (1) Extracts from the relevant register or similar documents issued by a competent judicial or administrative authority or certificates issued by the competent authority in the country referred to as documentation that the tenderer is not subject to the grounds for exclusion stipulated in sections 135(1), 135(3) and 137(1)(2); (2) A declaration on oath (only if such extracts, certificates or similar documents are not issued in the country where the economic operator is established, or where the documentation does not cover all the grounds for exclusion stipulated in sections 135(1), 135(3) and 137(1)(2) entirely); (3) A solemn declaration made by the person concerned before a competent judicial or administrative authority, a notary or a competent professional or trade body, in the country of origin or in the country where the economic operator is established (only if there is no provision for declarations on oath in the country where the economic operator is established). Thus, the contracting authority cannot accept e.g. a solemn declaration made before a notary if there can be issued a certificate by the competent authority in the country where the economic operator is established. Moreover, the contracting authority cannot accept self-declarations or similar declarations issued by the economic operator or the person concerned as documentation in relation to the exclusion grounds. Economic operators can identify the relevant documentation using the online platform e-Certis: https://ec.europa.eu/tools/ecertis. If an economic operator is entered on an official list of approved economic operators or has an equivalent certificate (e.g. under a national (pre)qualification system), the economic operator may refer to the list in question or present a certificate issued by the competent authority instead of documentation of the information provided in the ESPD. When an economic operator is participating in the procurement procedure together with others, the economic operator must present a joint statement from all the participating economic operators which identifies the member of the group who can act as an agent on behalf of the group with mandate to establish a legal obligation on behalf of the group in relation to the contracting authority. Economic operators are encouraged to submit all necessary documentation as early as possible. Prior to the signing of the contract, the tenderer, which the contracting authority has awarded the contract to, must present statements of availability from all non-permanent staff (e.g. project specific consultants or freelance consultants). This contract has not been divided into lots, cf. section II.1.6), due to market and economic considerations.
Place of performance: The evaluation will include country-level analyses, designed to assess the results of AGF-supported guarantees and capacity development in terms of access to finance, enterprise performance, employment, and related outcomes which address the OECD-DAC criteria of effectiveness and impact. This will include an examination of how AGF’s specific blended finance model influences results. One of the case countries shall be Kenya, representing the location of the operational headquarters of the AGF, and a significant share of activities.

Lot: LOT-0000
Title: Evaluation of the African Guarantee Fund and Denmark’s contribution

Procurement documents
Address of the procurement documents: https://www.ethics.dk/ethics/eo#/842d22b9-494c-4798-830f-8d3ff6d4f7b3/publicMaterial